The definition of 'long term retention' is questionable, but its the only data I could find. I'm happy to be proven wrong if you have a better source for retention data. I don't currently have a position (long or short) here, so I have no dog in this fight.
Your understanding of the company's retention is way off. And if you're so off on something so fundamental to the company, it really puts your whole thesis into question.
There is virtually zero chance that 85% of customers keep their sub 2 years. And there is even less of a chance the company has ever said that either on a call or any shareholder letter/presentation.
Mine isn't more so because of the underlying company but just that there is a lit fuse attached to compounding that I don't feel comfortable holding through
See slide 38 from the latest investor presentation - https://s27.q4cdn.com/787306631/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Hims-Hers-Q4-FY24-Investor-Presentation.pdf
The definition of 'long term retention' is questionable, but its the only data I could find. I'm happy to be proven wrong if you have a better source for retention data. I don't currently have a position (long or short) here, so I have no dog in this fight.
Your understanding of the company's retention is way off. And if you're so off on something so fundamental to the company, it really puts your whole thesis into question.
There is virtually zero chance that 85% of customers keep their sub 2 years. And there is even less of a chance the company has ever said that either on a call or any shareholder letter/presentation.
You're the only person on Substack I've seen so far raise these points other than me. Bravo.
Thank you. I noticed you've recently decided to go short the name which I applaud. It's in the 'too hard' pile for me.
Mine isn't more so because of the underlying company but just that there is a lit fuse attached to compounding that I don't feel comfortable holding through